[HarryN]

Neat - that van has some interesting potential as an EV or ICE.

Did you get the delivery carts that go with it?

 

[HarryN]

I think that one of the issues we are running into is that between the CO2 tax and "mandates" vs "voluntary", the EV transition could wildly backlash.

Hybrids offer most of the benefits and far fewer of the concerns - and are a proven setup - yet are on the "banned for being evil" list.

It causes political drama when there doesn't need to be any if things are allowed to occur at a natural pace.

Li mining and refining are really only limited by water management methods and recapture in most areas. The price will really not drop all that much further after already dropping 90%.

 

[HarryN]

Hi Harry,

Banned for being evil?

Gary

Yes - in California - hybrids are effectively banned from future sales in the not too distant future for not being good enough as they are not "pure EVs". That is why there isn't much movement in the auto industry on them.

Some kind of crazy examples -and I honestly really dislike Toyota so this is not easy to say:

- My daughter has a Toyota something minivan / suv hybrid that she waited in line to get. It gets amazing mileage for driving the kids to school and even has a built in 1500 watt inverter. Not only that - in a power outage, they can plug the fridge in and park it outside - it will auto start as needed to re-charge the pack and then auto shut down.

Really phenomenal technology.

- A buddy of mine for many years and a long time mutual battery nut has owned multiple prius cars for nearly 20 years.

For family reasons he has been driving long distances. If I understand it correctly, while driving down the highway, it will slightly increase the engine rpm to charge the battery pack - and then for short periods of time - turn the engine off and just run on the battery as an efficiency improvement.

Again - I can't stand Toyota for personal reasons but even with this really great technology and high efficiency - it is all banned under Newsom's mandates.

A lot of people who are very environmentally aware are not happy - still vote for him but just can't believe it.

 

[HarryN]

Hi RV,
The study by the Union of Concerned Scientists comparing EV to IC car emissions posted above takes into account fossil fuel use to generate charging electricity and also the (currently) higher carbon emissions associated with manufacturing and EV (due to batteries) and TOTAL FOSSIL FUEL USE AND CARBON EMISSIONS FOR AN EV CHARGED ON GRID ELECTRICITY ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN FOR IC CARS - THIS IS TRUE EVERYWHERE IN THE US. THIS IS ONLY GOING TO GET BETTER AS THE GRID GETS CLEANER.

You can buy an EV today and be sure you are reducing carbon emissions now, and by the end of the life of the EV be sure that the carbon emissions will be even quite a bit lower - probably close to zero.

Rusty makes a good point that most of the people motivated to buy an EV are probably also interested in making or buying cleaner power.

Gary

In CA, the EV owners that I know are not buying really buying them to be "clean". They are buying them because many of them get free use of the commuter lane and essentially free fuel by charging at work (for free ) and then they stop at the Tesla charge station (for free) on the way home.

 

[HarryN]

My argument in favor of EVs is almost always geared toward practicality. What's good for you can also be good for the world. Here is a very useful graph. EVs initially have a net negative carbon footprint compared to ICE. After 15k miles EV are 3 times cleaner. And the fuel per mile is MUCH CHEAPER!

I am not dissing on EVs, but as we approach $0.40 / kW-hr here in CA for summer electricity and are hitting close to $1 / kW-hr for electricity during peak demand periods - what electric rates are you assuming in your analysis?

Buying retail electricity at the retail EV charge stations here is not exactly cheap either. For me, charging at home is not really viable due to how our parking is set up.

 

[HarryN]

Valid concern parking.

My daughter can not own E.V. even if she wanted.
Lives in cramped popular Los Angeles area .
Zero real estate donated to charge E.V's within walking distance.

The one EV charging station is used as vacant parking spot for overnight visitors.

Power still off in my neighborhood.

Well - she could. She would have to go to a "fueling station" and get electricity put into her vehicle instead of going to a "fueling station" for gasoline.

Instead of taking 10 minutes to get 300 - 400 miles of fuel, it would take 2 - 3 hrs to get 150 - 250 miles of fuel.

I didn't realize that power was - SCE - so San Diego area. Wow.

This is also why I encourage people to install over size electrical systems in their vans - partial home back up for when the grid is down.

 

[HarryN]

For me personally, the effect of a "mandate" vs "voluntary" is very clear.

If it were entirely voluntary, then I could take the risk of buying an EV, knowing that I could go back to an ICE or Hybrd in the future.

Since it is a mandate, then my next vehicle really has to be an ICE vehicle, because it might be the last one that I can buy.

Under the existing mandates - I will always be able to buy an EV - so there isn't any point rushing it.

I don't own tons of vehicles - what I own gets driven for pretty much everything and I don't drive enough miles per year for EV vs hybrid vs ICE to really matter from an environmental perspective.

The hybrid for me is just a way to get improved city mileage.

 

[HarryN]

What mandates are you speaking of?

As @Bromaster5 noted, over the next 10 years, in California more or less will not be allowed to buy a hybrid or ICE vehicle unless the law can be reversed.

So only a few more years to be able to buy a van.

Our governor believes that this will help him become president.

 

[HarryN]

why is a scheduled outage disappointing for EVs?


Gary

There is not enough electricity produced in CA or with what we can purchase from other states to meet demand.

This is true even with large HVDC lines coming down from the PNW, power coming in from NV and AZ.

One of the reasons is that Newsom banned the purchase of coal power from a very large plant in AZ and they dropped at least 1 nuke - possibly two on speculation that everything will be fine.

__

So during the peak power use (mostly air conditioning on hot days ), which is nearly every day from 3 - 8 pm in July / Aug / Sept - there is a daily substantial shortage.

Solar generation - as currently installed - mostly stops production by 3 - 4 pm so unfortunately does not help at all with the peak demand period. I am a big advocate for facing solar panels toward 6 pm (summer) and use this concept at my off grid shop all of the time, but if falls on deaf ears.

So what the scheduled outages are doing is they pay people to have no power during part of the day or just turn it off if there won't be enough and not pay them during peak demand periods.

___

As people are increasingly pushed away from natural gas heating, hot water, etc - this just extends the high power demand periods into winter.

As far as EVs and scheduled outages - well if power is out, you can't charge.

 

[HarryN]

The ZEV program only applies to new vehicles.

Yes and no.

The regulators are already going around capturing data on all older vehicles, including historical ones owned by hobbyist.

The plan is to raise tax and license rates so high that people are forced to get rid of them, even if they are rarely driven.